- 1. Detecting Important Events using Prediction Markets, Text Mining, and Volatility Modeling George Tziralis Panos Ipeirotis
- 2. markets and efﬁciency • strong: prices reﬂect all information, public and private • semi-strong: prices reﬂect all publicly available information • weak: past prices cannot be used for market prediction
- 3. prediction markets? • Perhaps, the relationship between price and information is no more clear than in prediction markets (Pennock et al. 2002) • let’s start from the weak form of efﬁciency • is it possible to predict future prices using only past ones?
- 4. playground • InTrade • political contracts • US nominee elections 08 • 800 – 1000 time series instances for each contract
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