Estimating the Completion Time of Crowdsourced Tasks Using Survival Analysis Models

In order to seamlessly integrate a human computation component (e.g., Amazon Mechanical Turk) within a larger production system, we need to have some basic understanding of how long it takes to complete a task posted for completion in a crowdsourcing platform.  We present an analysis of the completion time of tasks posted on Amazon Mechanical Turk, based on a dataset containing 165,368 HIT groups, with a total of 6,701,406 HITs, from 9,436 requesters, posted over a period of 15 months.  We model the completion time as a stochastic process and build a statistical method for predicting the expected time for task completion.  We use a survival analysis model based on Cox proportional hazards regression.  We present the preliminary results of our work, showing how time-independent variables of posted tasks (e.g., type of the task, price of the HIT, day posted, etc) affect completion time.  We consider this a first step towards building a comprehensive optimization module that provides recommendations for pricing, posting time, in order to satisfy the constraints of the requester.

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